23rd June 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Listening to global central bankers, loose monetary policy is the way forward (unless global outlook improves), except for the Bank of England which is battling Brexit. Geopolitical tensions have flared with the US deciding last minute to back out of air strikes on Iran. As we edge closer to the end of…

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16th June 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Central banks are scheduled to meet on policy this week, starting with the Fed on Tues-Wed – waiting for a clear direction, financial markets are already pricing in two cuts by end of the year (the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows traders assign an 88% probability of a cut in Jul). The…

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9th June 2019

Markets: Most global equity markets ended positive week – optimism picked up as US revealed plans to give China more time to avoid a tariff hike (further, on Fri, Trump tweeted that tariffs on Mexican imports were “indefinitely suspended) while weak jobs data raised expectations for a Fed rate cut. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes…

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2nd June 2019

Weekly Economic COMMENTARY – Brought to you by Nasser Saidi & Associates – 2nd June 2019 Global Developments Bottomline: In the last week of May, as the “cold war” with China continued, came a few more trade “actions” from the US – India will be stripped of its preferential market access to the US from…

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26th May 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: The OECD became the latest to lower growth forecasts to 3.2% this year (the slowest pace in 3 years), with a staunch warning on “clear and present dangers” from trade war measures. Concerns remain whether the trade war between the US and China will escalate further, and more trouble is likely to…

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19th May 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Not much joy around the world – FDI into emerging markets falling to the lowest in 20 years; escalating worrisome economic wars, and breakdown of cross-party Brexit talks on one hand while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East edged up after Saudi oil facilities were hit by drones and oil tankers attacked…

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12th May 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Global growth headwinds are back in play – global manufacturing PMI (50.3 in Apr vs Mar’s 50.5) slipped to the lowest since Jun 2016 and the new order inflows is the weakest since 2012. The European Commission downgraded growth forecasts for this year and the next and as the US moves closer…

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5th May 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: The Fed kept rates unchanged, with its Chair pushing back against interest rate cut pressures saying inflation will rebound; there seems to be an issue of mixed messaging with two other Fed member statements leaving the door open to rate cuts. In Europe GDP surprised on the upside, in spite of the…

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28th Aptil 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Though US GDP surprised on the upside, it is likely temporary given the surge in inventories and smaller trade deficit; however, it will have an impact on Fed’s interest rate decision this week. Across the world, however, not-so-promising news including South Korea’s unexpected GDP decline, Japan’s dip in manufacturing, Sweden and Canada’s…

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21st April 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: China’s GDP was one of the major data releases last week: the PBoC said that “economic growth is resilient”, and repeated earlier assurances that it would not resort to “flood-like” monetary stimulus measures. Though still in contractionary territory, German and Japanese PMIs ticked modestly higher from Mar, offering hope that there are…

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14th April 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: The IMF issued its latest World Economic Outlook, lowering global growth forecast (for the 3rd time in 6 months) to 3.3% this year – the weakest annual growth since 2009 – before improving to 3.6% in 2020. Dragged down by uncertainties surrounding Brexit and the US-China (and global) trade wars, the IMF…

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7th April 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Some glimmer of hope amidst glum data – China’s latest PMI readings point towards the impact from stimulus measures introduced earlier this year; though it looks like difficult times ahead for Europe given the latest woeful set of German data (which pushed German bund yields back to negative territory), IP data surprised…

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31st March 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: US and China wrapped up “constructive” trade talks in Beijing, according to US officials, and are scheduled to continue in the US this week; China’s People’s daily meanwhile published a commentary stating “we must have a ‘bottom line mindset’, and be prepared to not be able to reach a deal”. China will…

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24th March 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: The US economy is already slowing, partly due to the fading of a major fiscal stimulus in 2018; the US-China economic war and recent economic indicators have led the Fed to revise down growth forecasts for the country. The latest PMI data have disappointed: trade tensions have left their mark on the…

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17th March 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: In the US, there have been soft reports ranging from retail sales to housing alongside low levels of unemployment and rising wages; the Fed will likely hold interest rates steady at the meeting this week, also in line with Powell’s comments last week that the central bank does “not feel any hurry”…

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3rd March 2019

3rd March 2019 Global Developments Bottomline: March is going to be a crucial month – need to wait and watch if the latest set of weak economic data released across the globe, dampened by the lack of a China-US deal, will change in the coming weeks; another upcoming deadline this month is Brexit. Reading the US GDP…

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