18th August 2019

Global MARKETS: After a topsy-turvy week, most equity markets recovered towards end of the week, on expectations of ECB stimulus: the week saw reactions to a delay in the Sep 1 US deadline for a 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, a short-lived yield curve inversion, as well as a Euro zone bank share meltdown (to…

4th August 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Trade tensions have been one of the prominent policy uncertainties this year and worries escalated globally last week, with Trump announcing an additional 10% tariff on USD 300bn worth of Chinese imports starting Sep 1 and Japan deciding to remove South Korea from a list of trusted export destinations. Already, Markit Global…

28th July 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: The IMF revised downwards its global growth projection to 3.2% this year and 3.5% in 2020, in its latest update of the World Economic Outlook. The PMI readings continue to reinforce the diverging trends between the manufacturing and services sector; policy uncertainty and resulting delays in business investments expedites the downhill move…

21st July 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Geopolitical tensions are on the rise with the seizing of British vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in statements about “serious consequences”. Meanwhile, the IIF reported an increase in global debt to USD 246.5trn in Q1 this year, almost 320% of global economic output. China’s debt, at over USD 40trn, topped 300% of GDP…

14th July 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Trade wars continue to bubble up – Japan-Korea trade spat on tighter export controls gathered pace last week (with Japan reportedly considering the removal of South Korea from a list of trusted export markets); in France, lawmakers approved a tax on big tech companies which is likely to result in retaliatory tariffs from the…

7th July 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: With a stop-gap truce announced at the G20, China-US trade negotiations have resumed but with “no timeline” in mind, according to the White House economic advisor Kudlow. Chinese chatter seems to be tipped towards the negative side with the commerce ministry spokesperson mentioning that all imposed tariffs must be removed for the…

30th June 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Though the Xi-Trump meeting at the G20 resulted in a gentleman’s agreement, there is a long winding road to navigate (technology, intellectual property, security issues etc.) before the tariffs are rolled back or a historic deal is reached. The G20 communique meanwhile steered clear of references to the ongoing trade wars or…

23rd June 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Listening to global central bankers, loose monetary policy is the way forward (unless global outlook improves), except for the Bank of England which is battling Brexit. Geopolitical tensions have flared with the US deciding last minute to back out of air strikes on Iran. As we edge closer to the end of…

16th June 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Central banks are scheduled to meet on policy this week, starting with the Fed on Tues-Wed – waiting for a clear direction, financial markets are already pricing in two cuts by end of the year (the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows traders assign an 88% probability of a cut in Jul). The…

9th June 2019

Markets: Most global equity markets ended positive week – optimism picked up as US revealed plans to give China more time to avoid a tariff hike (further, on Fri, Trump tweeted that tariffs on Mexican imports were “indefinitely suspended) while weak jobs data raised expectations for a Fed rate cut. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes…