24th November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Flash PMI readings in Europe showed slowing services activity although manufacturing edged up, pointing towards stabilization (though still under-50), while in the US numbers were more optimistic. Trade tensions drag on with mixed messages, and concerns remain as Trump is expected to sign legislation backing pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the…

17th November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Over the weekend, reports were out of a “constructive” high-level phone call between US-China trade negotiators, though no details were given about either the deal or its timing (same with the WH economic adviser’s statement about “getting close” to an agreement though “not done yet”). In Europe, Germany and UK posted positive…

10th November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: PMI releases dominated last week, underscoring slowing economic growth in Oct as well; growth of output and new orders weakened in the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI while employment fell for the first time since Feb 2010. Global concerns continue to centre around the still unresolved US-China trade uncertainty: with internal White…

3rd November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: A week of mixed news – the temporary trade truce seems to be in trouble following rhetoric from China while in the UK, Brexit uncertainty drags on with elections coming up (again). Jobs growth in the US and China’s PMI numbers provided relief towards the end of the week which saw weak…

27th October

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: On one end of the world, focus was on the progress in US-China trade negotiations, which for now seems to be steering clear of issues like cyber theft, industrial subsidies, IP rights, state-owned enterprises and the like. Meanwhile, Brexit continues to drag on with no clear picture even as the Oct 31…

20th October

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The IMF, as expected, lowered its global growth forecast to 3% this year, the lowest since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Though the US-China trade tensions are projected to cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8% by 2020, overall growth is expected to rise to 3.4% next year, supported by improvements…

13th October

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Ahead of the IMF-World Bank meetings this week, the new IMF chief called for finding a “lasting solution on trade” while stating that the ongoing trade conflicts could cost the global economy close to $700bn or 0.8% of output by 2020. There were bursts of optimism from Brexit hopes and the “Phase…

6th October

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The JP Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 51.2 in Sep, its joint-lowest reading since mid-2016, with the service sector still outperforming manufacturing. New order inflows increased at a slower pace as international trade flows continued to deteriorate, while job creation in the service sector was the weakest in 7 years.…

29th September

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The World Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest in a 20-year history– not surprising given the latest political dramas in the US (impeachment, ongoing confrontation with China) and the UK (Brexit, potential no-confidence vote and possible elections) on one hand, and the trade spats on the other (the unabated China-US wars,…

22nd September

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The focus has shifted slightly from trade uncertainty (still unresolved, with the latest being the Chinese delegation’s abrupt departure without visiting few US farms, as was expected before) to geopolitics in the region, following the attacks on Saudi oil fields. The attack on Saudi Aramco facilities has raised uncertainty about Saudi oil…