13th October

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Ahead of the IMF-World Bank meetings this week, the new IMF chief called for finding a “lasting solution on trade” while stating that the ongoing trade conflicts could cost the global economy close to $700bn or 0.8% of output by 2020. There were bursts of optimism from Brexit hopes and the “Phase…

6th October

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The JP Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 51.2 in Sep, its joint-lowest reading since mid-2016, with the service sector still outperforming manufacturing. New order inflows increased at a slower pace as international trade flows continued to deteriorate, while job creation in the service sector was the weakest in 7 years.…

29th September

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The World Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest in a 20-year history– not surprising given the latest political dramas in the US (impeachment, ongoing confrontation with China) and the UK (Brexit, potential no-confidence vote and possible elections) on one hand, and the trade spats on the other (the unabated China-US wars,…

22nd September

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The focus has shifted slightly from trade uncertainty (still unresolved, with the latest being the Chinese delegation’s abrupt departure without visiting few US farms, as was expected before) to geopolitics in the region, following the attacks on Saudi oil fields. The attack on Saudi Aramco facilities has raised uncertainty about Saudi oil…

15th September

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The ECB lowered rates at the meeting last week, as did the Turkish central bank and Denmark. Up ahead this week are meetings in the US and across Europe (UK, Norway) as well as Asia (Japan) – while the Fed is widely expected to cut (Trump’s “Fed bashing” tweets are getting more…

8th September 2019

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Global economy continues to lose momentum –JPMorgan Global PMI fell to 51.3 in Aug, near a 3-year low, largely driven by the decline in global trade (which dropped for a 12th consecutive month; goods exports fell at the sharpest rate since Oct 2012). Data from the EU indicate a weak Q3 and…

1st September

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The world awaits the impact from Sep 1 US tariffs – to be imposed on Chinese exports worth USD 125bn – and China’s retaliatory tariffs while the Japan-South Korea trade dispute drags on, and the US and Japan agree “in principle” to a trade deal “worth billions” to be signed in Sep…

25th August 2019

While humans squabble and debate their commitment to combat climate change, nature has been relentless and unforgiving. Extreme weather events are growing in intensity and frequency. June 2019 was the hottest June in 140 years, setting a global record, and maximum temperatures last seen a century ago were felt in Bagdad, Bahrain and Kuwait. The…

18th August 2019

Global MARKETS: After a topsy-turvy week, most equity markets recovered towards end of the week, on expectations of ECB stimulus: the week saw reactions to a delay in the Sep 1 US deadline for a 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, a short-lived yield curve inversion, as well as a Euro zone bank share meltdown (to…

4th August 2019

Global Developments Bottomline: Trade tensions have been one of the prominent policy uncertainties this year and worries escalated globally last week, with Trump announcing an additional 10% tariff on USD 300bn worth of Chinese imports starting Sep 1 and Japan deciding to remove South Korea from a list of trusted export destinations. Already, Markit Global…