19th January 2020

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: The US-China Phase 1 trade deal was signed last week: however, much uncertainty and skepticism remain as the wording and amount of China’s purchases sowed doubts (and saw prices of corn, soybeans dip) and critical issues like cyber theft, state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies are not addressed in the current deal, while…

13th January 2020

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Coming up this week is the potential signing of the US-China Phase 1 trade deal, as the US-Iran tussle continues: so far this year, the US killed Iran’s top military commander, Iran retaliated with missile attack on US troops in Iraq, US imposed additional sanctions on Iran and rebuffed an Iraqi request…

5th January

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: US-Iran tensions flared up in the New Year, with the killing of Iran’s top military leader – the Eurasia Group estimates a 28% likelihood of a short, limited conflict. Any such conflict will act as a further dampener on global growth – not that there is any dearth of uncertainty already, with…

22nd December

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: As the year inches to a close, the US and China are approaching a phase one trade deal (China announced a new list of tariff exemptions for US imports), while in the UK, PM Johnson is getting ready to ratify his Brexit deal. Major central banks have entered a “pause” mode in…

15th December

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Is the phase one trade deal news one to really cheer for? Given the history of “agreements” in the past, it might be worthwhile to wait for more clarity: the amount of agricultural goods Beijing agreed to buy is still unconfirmed (US claiming an agreement of purchases worth USD 40bn, though a…

8th December

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: News about trade uncertainty dominated last week: be it the US threatening 100% tariffs starting early next year on $2.4bn worth of popular French products, or Trump’s tweet about re-imposing tariffs on steel from Brazil and Argentina, or his comment at NATO about liking the idea of “waiting until after the election”…

24th November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Flash PMI readings in Europe showed slowing services activity although manufacturing edged up, pointing towards stabilization (though still under-50), while in the US numbers were more optimistic. Trade tensions drag on with mixed messages, and concerns remain as Trump is expected to sign legislation backing pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the…

17th November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: Over the weekend, reports were out of a “constructive” high-level phone call between US-China trade negotiators, though no details were given about either the deal or its timing (same with the WH economic adviser’s statement about “getting close” to an agreement though “not done yet”). In Europe, Germany and UK posted positive…

10th November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: PMI releases dominated last week, underscoring slowing economic growth in Oct as well; growth of output and new orders weakened in the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI while employment fell for the first time since Feb 2010. Global concerns continue to centre around the still unresolved US-China trade uncertainty: with internal White…

3rd November

GLOBAL Developments Bottomline: A week of mixed news – the temporary trade truce seems to be in trouble following rhetoric from China while in the UK, Brexit uncertainty drags on with elections coming up (again). Jobs growth in the US and China’s PMI numbers provided relief towards the end of the week which saw weak…